For anyone old enough to remember, let’s hope the boys are back in town. For anyone born after, say 1980, here is today’s history lesson: As Paul Volcker was choking out the ravages of inflation, beginning with 1979-1980, the Prime Rate (remember that) was 21.5%, it started an old fashioned, 4-decade decline on interest rates.
The first Fed Q & A session is underway. Chairman Powell notes “We are a long way from a full recovery”. In case you need a refresher, that is “Full Employment” (whatever the Fed deems it to be) and 2% Inflation.
A week removed from the November 3rd elections and most of the dust has settled, save for two interesting US Senate races. Since no candidate received 50% of the votes cast, a runoff is scheduled for January 5, 2021, for not just one, but both Senate seats. This will make for more political kabuki.
Although not a bull, the bison is in full regalia with party hat, balloons and cake with lighted candles complimenting the festive atmosphere. And why not !!!
Wasn’t that a scintillating start to Q2? Just when you think you have the worst quarter in stock market history in your rear view mirror, another jolt of reality hits and it was no April Fools joke.
Feels like April 14, 1912 all over again. Not so much actually hitting the iceberg, but the fact there are only so many lifeboats for way too many passengers. Fast forward to present day and the clamoring to exit any asset class is experiencing the same déjà vu.
For some time, in our client meetings, you have heard me express my amazement and the ease of which equity markets were basically going straight up, with nary a correction (Down 10% from highs) or bear market (Down 20%). Far too often, I could not reconcile the stratospheric valuations and the momentum stocks were given by World Central Banks, as a direct result of their ‘Easy Money’ policies. It seemed the old school metrics of fundamentals didn’t mean boo. You know, things like earnings.
Given multiple prior posts and warnings about the incredulity of stock prices, assisted by central banks and their race to the bottom with low or below zero interest rates, mix in a deadly virus, (thanks China) add in collapsing commodity prices (primarily Oil) and what do you get? Uncertainty.
So we begin the Roaring 20’s. Question is, will this decade mimic it’s counterpart of a century ago? For the early part, I hope so, but definitely NOT the end, as 1929 wasn’t a very good year.
Happy New Year !!! Hard to believe we are closing in on the end of the decade (730 days and counting), but as 2018 emerges we are approaching the 20’s at warp speed, which begs the question: Will we see a repeat of the Roaring 20’s from a century ago? If we do, life will get most interesting indeed.
